Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
000 WTNT42 KNHC 230248 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 After making landfall in southeastern Louisiana earlier today, Surface observations show that the center has become less well defined. It appears, however, that the center has slipped a little southwestward and close to the coast of south Louisiana. Most of the deep convection continues to be south and southwest of the center, out over the northern Gulf, due to the persistent north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. The overall cloud pattern is not very well organized, and is elongated from southwest to northeast. The intensity estimate is held at 40 kt for this advisory, with these winds occurring primarily over the Gulf waters. Bertha has been moving a little south of west over the past several hours, with the initial motion a faster 260/10 kt. The main steering mechanism continues to be a large and strong mid-tropospheric anticyclone over the south-central United States. Bertha should move along the southern periphery of this high pressure area for the next day or two, and is expected to briefly re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf waters on Thursday. The system should cross the upper Texas coast later on Thursday and move inland over Texas after that. The official forecast track is just slightly south of the previous NHC prediction, mainly due to the more southern location of the center, and is close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. Since the storm should remain in a dry mid-level air mass with continued strong north-northeasterly vertical wind shear through Thursday, significant re-strengthening over the northwestern Gulf waters is unlikely. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance, close to the SHIPS prediction. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along the northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to southwestern Louisiana, including the Metro New Orleans area, tonight and on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the upper Texas coast on Thursday. 2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas through Thursday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 29.4N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 29.2N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 29.1N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1200Z 29.0N 98.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
