Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
200 WTNT42 KNHC 202048 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 The earlier aircraft mission into the depression found a minimum central pressure of 1005 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 34 kt. ASCAT data from the western part of the circulation showed winds below 35 kt, and the latest satellite intensity estimate from TAFB was 30 kt. Based on these, the depression has not yet reached tropical-storm strength and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The low-level center has been moving erratically most of the day, but the overall motion seems to be 305/3 kt. There is again little change in the track forecast reasoning. The depression is in light steering currents between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over the central U. S. and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. The U. S. ridge is expected to become a little more dominant of a steering feature as it builds eastward. The guidance is in overall agreement that the cyclone should move slowly northwestward to west-northwestward for 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. However, there is some spread in the guidance in the first 36-48 h about how close the center comes to the northern Gulf Coast and how sharp the westward turn would be. The new forecast track lies between these two clusters of models and is a little to the north of the previous track. It should be noted that strong northeasterly shear is forecast over the cyclone, which could keep the center south of the forecast track due to the effects of convective bursts. However, there are models such as the ECMWF and Canadian that bring the system inland on the northern Gulf coast. The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and these conditions should continue for another 18-24 h. It is likely that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a tropical storm. After that, the northeasterly shear should increase, and the global models suggest it will get strong enough to destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone. This should halt intensification and then cause weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 h, and this is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The new forecast also calls for the system to weaken to a remnant low by 120 h, and based on the dynamical model guidance there is a possibility it could dissipate between 72-120 h due to shear and land interaction. It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the center. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana Tuesday and Wednesday. 2. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Alabama, Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm surge is possible. 3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for portions of that area tonight or Tuesday. 4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida north of Fort Myers to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 28.7N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 29.6N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 29.6N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1800Z 29.5N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 25/1800Z 29.4N 96.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
