ABPZ20 KNHC 180554
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula remain disorganized. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the western East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E remain limited. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development of this system as it moves gradually
westward to west-southwestward, remaining well east-southeast to
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave are located several hundred miles south-southwest of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions remain conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves
gradually northwestward and then northward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Evans/Gibbs
