Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
020 WTNT44 KNHC 010244 TCDAT4 Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Satellite images show that Imelda has developed a ragged large eye feature with deep convection wrapping around its western side. The strongest thunderstorms are currently confined to the northwest quadrant. Despite the structural change, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters have found that the minimum pressure and maximum winds are about the same as earlier. Based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt. This estimate is notably above the latest satellite estimates. Imelda is starting to pick up some forward speed and continues to bend to the right, with the latest motion estimated to be 070/12 kt. A much faster east-northeast to northeast motion is expected soon in the strong flow ahead of a large-scale trough, in which Humberto is embedded within. This motion should take the core of Imelda near Bermuda Wednesday evening, but weather conditions there will likely begin to deteriorate Wednesday afternoon. After that, a turn to the northeast over the open Atlantic is expected. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Imelda is expected to strengthen overnight and Wednesday as the hurricane approaches Bermuda. The intensification will likely be due to a combination of tropical and non-tropical forcing, and it could become a category 2 hurricane when it is near the island. The models suggest that Imelda will complete extratropical transition in about two days when it merges with a mid- to upper-level trough and the remnants of Humberto. The system is expected to gradually decay after the transition. Imelda is also expected to significantly grow in size over the next few days, which will cause the ongoing high surf and swells to persist over a large portion of the central and western Atlantic. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Imelda is expected to bring damaging hurricane-force winds when it passes near or over Bermuda Wednesday afternoon or evening. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the island. 2. Imelda is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across Bermuda Wednesday into Thursday. Large and damaging waves are also expected on the island. 3. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 29.7N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 30.7N 70.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 32.2N 65.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 33.9N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 35.4N 54.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 03/1200Z 37.9N 50.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0000Z 39.9N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0000Z 45.4N 41.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/0000Z 51.6N 30.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
