Hurricane Imelda Forecast Advisory Number 16

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Hurricane Imelda Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

000
WTNT24 KNHC 301452
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092025
1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  76.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT.......140NE  90SE 100SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 270SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  76.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  76.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 29.8N  74.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 31.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.6N  65.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 34.3N  60.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  60SW  60NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 200SW 290NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.7N  53.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 230SE 200SW 300NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 39.3N  50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...360NE 250SE 250SW 300NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 43.6N  46.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  50NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 50.5N  37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 250SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N  76.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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