Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026
000 WTNT41 KNHC 250847 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 Fay continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and to the west of the low-level center this morning, remaining resilient to the dry mid-level environment. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 35 to 48 kt. Using these estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 kt for this advisory. Given warm sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C, some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 h or so. However, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase later tonight. As the shear increases and the mid-levels remain quite dry, with relative humidity values in the mid 30s, Fay should gradually weaken. The system is expected to lose deep convection once again over the weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered intensity guidance. The only change to the forecast is that dissipation has been delayed, as the global models continue to show the remnant low meandering over the central Atlantic for a few more days. The storm continues to move westward with an estimated initial motion of 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then southwest is expected to being in a day or so as Fay becomes a vertically shallow cyclone and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 29.8N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 29.7N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 27/1800Z 29.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 28.5N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 27.6N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
